The Grammys are similar to the Oscars in at least one respect this year — it’s a real contest in most of, if not all of the top fields. The question that’s shifted most lately is: Contest between whom? Last fall, Variety published a story raising the possibility that the 2023 awards could be a fight to the finish between Adele and Beyoncé, just as in 2017. But, speaking of “As It Was,” the sands seem to have shifted to where it’s now more widely seen as a contest between Beyoncé and Harry Styles in the three all-genre categories where all three artists are nominated — record of the year, song of the year and album of the year.
That’s not to say that Adele couldn’t still pull it off in one of those three top categories or even manage a sweep; she may remain a quiet favorite, especially among the older voters who used to serve as the silent majority (and now, with efforts to diversify and young-ify the Recording Academy, may be a strong, silent minority). But the tea leaves, and the conversations with real voters, lead us to believe that Styles has finally shed any boy-band stigma, come up from behind and gotten enough support to at least split top categories with Beyoncé. Adele, while hugely respected, is seen by many as having been sufficiently rewarded already — while neither Styles nor Beyoncé has ever won for record or album of the year. That’s especially remarkable in Beyoncé’s case: This year, she could shatter the record for the most Grammy wins of all time while never winning in one of the top four categories if we turn out to be wrong and she is again shut out in those.
Best new artist? That’s almost anyone’s guess, although, among the 10 nominees, it’s easy to at least rule out the half of them that even most Grammy voters had never heard. The winds look to favor Maneskin, Omar Apollo, Samara Joy, Anitta or Wet Leg — it may be a real photo finish between those five, though we can’t completely rule out a sixth candidate there, Muni Long.
Predictions in some of the Grammy Awards categories are below: