As was reported several months back, “Dial of Destiny” carries an eye-melting $300 million budget. That figure, it is very much worth noting, does not include marketing. So, after marketing, conservatively speaking, Disney is probably $400 million in the hole. Given that theaters generally keep around half of all money made from ticket sales, you’re talking about needing at least $800 million at the global box office to have a chance at breaking even. That number is all but entirely out of the question, meaning the budget is going to almost assuredly keep the film from breaking even during its theatrical run, forget about turning a profit.
Let’s say the film does, indeed, debut with around $70 million domestically, which would be around 30% less than “Kingdom of the Crystal Skull.” If we presume a similar decline for the film’s total theatrical run, “Dial of Destiny” would pull in just north of $550 million worldwide. That’s a damn fine sum and, if this movie had a $185 million budget like its predecessor, it might even be considered a modest success.
Unfortunately, franchise film budgets have spiraled out of control and that’s preventing even big hits from becoming profitable. Similarly, “Fast X” rolled into theaters with a $340 million budget. Granted, the pandemic inflated these budgets a bit, but numbers this high are downright absurd. Some of the year’s biggest theatrical earners are still going to lose money and that is something Hollywood is going to have to reckon with sooner rather than later. “Indy 5” figures to be one of those movies.
The cast for the film also includes Phoebe Waller-Bridge (“Fleabag”), Antonio Banderas (“Pain and Glory”), John Rhys-Davies (“Raiders of the Los Ark”), Shaunette Renee Wilson (“Black Panther”), Thomas Kretschmann (“Das Boot”), Toby Jones (“Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom”), Boyd Holbrook (“Logan”), and Mads Mikkelsen (“Doctor Strange”).
“Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny” hits theaters on June 30, 2023.