Part of the reason the “Mission: Impossible” movies have performed so well in recent years is that they’ve tended to hold on week to week. “Fallout,” for example, declined just 42% in its second weekend, while “Rogue Notion” dropped 49%, but proceeded to hold like gangbusters from that point on. But that is also only one part of a much larger picture, as these movies tend to have an outsized audience overseas. Now, it appears as though the studio is going to be relying more than ever on a massive turnout from international audiences to keep “Dead Reckoning Part One” from becoming a financial failure. In fairness, even under the best of circumstances, it was always going to be an uphill battle with that budget.
As it stands, “Dead Reckoning” has earned $370.8 million globally, with about 68% of that total ($252.1 million) coming from overseas audiences. If the split finishes around 30% domestic and 70% international, the way things are going, we are probably looking at a finish in the ballpark of $700 million. If things somehow go very well in spite of the major competition, it could be closer to $750 million.
It seems unlikely that the movie will surpass “Fallout” ($786 million worldwide), and it’s also unlikely that Paramount will manage to turn a profit during the theatrical run. Still, if they can somehow reduce the budget for “Part Two,” which is currently set to hit theaters next summer, things may balance out in the end. One thing is certain: losing those IMAX screens to “Oppenheimer” really hurt Paramount’s bottom line on this one.
“Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning Part One” is now in theaters.